The Hot Sheet, March 9, 2016
Author: Jared Wright - March 9, 2016 - Updated: August 20, 2016
By TCS Publisher and Editor in Chief Jared Wright _@JaredWright_
Wednesday, March 9, 2016
DENVER — Good morning and happy Wednesday, the day when a whiff of hope wafts through the halls of the state Capitol … Only 3 days until legislators take a two day hiatus from piling more new laws onto the stack. That stack is now 497 bills tall. I would say they could call it quits now with very clear consciences …
“Good people do not need laws to tell them to act responsibly, while bad people will find a way around the laws.” — Plato
Now, your substrata feed straight from the politics pipeline:
“Jebmentum” — Politico’s Shane Goldmacher put it best this morning: “All just like Jeb” and “death spiral” — two phrases describing Marco Rubio’s campaign. After Rubio’s own referencing of polls that show him losing in his home state (as we mentioned yesterday) and “defending undersize crowds” while “fending off rumors of quitting,” — all things Jeb Bush did in his final campaign hours. So we have to ask: Why are you still here, Marco? Why? The windmill is so close now. Walk away before impact, right? Full Politico article here.
Rubio’s answer is: Why get out when the Florida winner-take-all primary is in just a few days? If Rubio wins his home state, it takes significant wind out of Trump’s sails and could lead to a contested convention. If John Kasich also wins his home state of Ohio, even more so. So, truthfully, Kasich, Rubio and Ted Cruz are all in this together — to keep Trump from securing the delegates necessary for nomination prior to the national convention. A contested convention is every candidate’s — who’s name is not Trump — best hope at this point.
But … the flip side is, considerable damage done to Rubio if he loses Florida.
Fiorina endorses Cruz — Carly Fiorina has announced her endorsement of Ted Cruz this morning, speaking as a surprise mystery guest at a Cruz rally at Miami Dade College.
“I checked the box for Ted Cruz” when voting in VA last week, Fiorina said. “The only guy who can beat Donald Trump is Ted Cruz … and that is the only way we are going to beat Hillary Clinton.”
Last night’s Super Tuesday II results, four more notches on somebody’s belt — Who are those somebodies?
Trump: Hawaii, Michigan and Minnesota (+71 delegates)
Cruz: Idaho (Apparently Trump’s, “Thank you Idaho! I love your potatoes- nobody grows them better. As President, I will protect your market,” didn’t work). (+56 delegates)
Clinton: Mississippi (+87 delegates)
Sanders: Michigan (+69 delegates)
Current delegate counts and wins last night:
Clinton is up 87 delegates (to Sanders supporters, those rascally super delegates again). She now has 1,221
Sanders won 69 delegates last night. He now holds 571
Trump won 71 last night, up to a total of 458
Cruz won 56, up to 359
Kasich won 17, up to 54
Rubio won 0, now holds 151
If I were a high school science teacher explaining the four GOP candidates as planets in the solar system — delegate counts proportionate the sun being victory, Trump is Earth, Cruz is Mars, Rubio is Uranus and Kasich is Pluto (debatably not even a planet, but still with some slight gravitational pull).
What this all means:
Trump is ahead of his delegate target to pick up the nomination while Cruz is now once again lagging behind. Clinton is also ahead of target while Sanders lags behind.
The only states remaining that really matter to the GOP candidates are Florida and Ohio — both winner-take-all delegates states with 99 and 66 delegates on the line respectively. Both states hold their Democratic and Republican primary contests March 15. If Trump wins Florida and Ohio, he will only need to win 52% of the remaining delegates to get to 1,237.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, if Rubio wins Florida and Kasich wins Ohio, Trump will need 69% of the remaining state’s delegates in play, a far higher threshold.
That said, the GOP could still pull the rug out from under Trump — At convention. Even if Trump had 1,237 delegates, if they’re not so loyal, the delegates themselves (with some parliamentary coaching — which we know always happens) could change the rules of the convention prior to even taking a first round vote for president. Fascinating full article here.
And … A Republican National Committee member, North Dakota’s Curly Haugland, is proposing an amendment to the national convention rules that will allow any Republican candidate with at least one delegate to be “deemed” nominated on the first ballot. If passed, this rule change would allow 8 candidates — Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Kasich, Mike Huckabee, Ben Carson, Rand Paul and Jeb Bush — to be considered the first time around. Read the full story here in the Daily Caller.
If the GOP had the Democratic Party’s (non-Demcratic) rules, Trump would not be an issue — Namely, superdelegates. The Democratic Party has far many more super delegates than the Republican Party does. This is why, to many Democrat’s dismay, states that Sanders wins in the regular delegate counts are often very close or even won by Clinton (see Colorado). Because the Democratic Party superdelegates are members of the party apparatus (members of Congress, party leaders, governors, etc) — read establishment, if the GOP had a similar structure, Trump would not be taking nearly the number of delegates away that he has been.
Freshly announced for re-election, Lamborn holding town hall meeting in Monument today — U.S. Rep. Doug Lamborn will host a town hall meeting in Fountain today at 1:30 pm at Fountain City Hall, 116 S Main St. Will the congressman who faces primary challengers perennially have an establishment Republican tracker there to record his remarks? I guess we will find out. Fortunately for this incumbent, this is anything but the year of the establishment.
ICYMI, Marble won a hemp award — State Sen. Vickie Marble was awarded the “Most Supportive and Progressive State Senator for Hemp” prize last weekend by Grow Hemp Colorado at their 2nd Annual Hemp Awards Festival in Boulder, for her bill last year, SB 15-196.
CO Independent Ethics Commission could get put on some roids, gain some added muscle (but not likely) — Rep. Beth McCann and Sen. Pat Steadman’s bill, HB 1216, passed House Judiciary yesterday on a 6 Democrats to 5 Republicans party line vote. The bill would establish procedures for the IEC that currently do not exist, such as how to promulgate administrative rules, establishing and clarifying standards of proof, the employment of independent legal counsel, and specification of the IEC’s role and general penalty imposed for breach of public trust. While the bill does all of these things to try to bolster a commission that is fraught with problems, according to a state audit, it does not provide it with any additional funding.
Read a full story on the audit findings here from The Grand Junction Daily Sentinel’s Charles Ashby
Advancing Colorado has launched a digital advertising strike against Sen. Bennet — The conservative group announced it has kicked off an advertising campaign “using digital capabilities” (translation – on Google and Facebook) to raise awareness of the VA Accountability Act and calling on U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet to support it. Jonathan Lockwood, executive director of Advancing Colorado said in a statement, “Veterans and their families have sacrificed for our country, we owe them the best health care we can provide. The VA must face reform to make critical changes to the toxic culture that promotes misconduct and incompetence. Sen. Michael Bennet should put his vote where his mouth is and support this bill.”
Bennet does not sit on the Committee on Veterans’ Affairs, were the bill currently sits waiting for action.
“The first step in the evolution of ethics is a sense of solidarity with other human beings.” — Albert Schweitzer
If the presidential candidates had beards … sadly, no John Kasich, but gifted Photoshop talent nonetheless.
From the wires:
Denver Business Journal’s Ed Sealover reports that the OEDIT Director will stay out of Rep. Mike Foote and Brittany Pettersen’s bill attempting to close a corporate tax haven “loophole” that could be incredibly damaging to recruiting business to Colorado The bill is up for its final third reading vote in the House today.
Read my report in The Colorado Statesman on the pro-Israel anti-BDS bill and it’s progress
Coyote Gulch has a comprehensive blog post on rain barrels … in case you really really wanted to read more about rain barrels.
The Durango Herald’s Peter Marcus reports on Rep. Paul Rosenthal’s gay conversion therapy bill being questioned in the Colorado Legislature — and passing committee
The Denver Post’s Joey Bunch writes on “The Spot” blog that Speaker Dickey Lee Hullinghorst thinks Republicans are missing the big picture when it comes to dealing with growth and the demands it will have on the state — the way to deal with that, she thinks, is moving the hospital provider fee to an enterprise fund in order to bypass TABOR. Read Hullinghorst’s full essay and Bunch’s blog post here.
The Denver Post’s Mark Matthews writes in “The Spot” about U.S. Sen. Cory Gardner’s filing of a symbolic resolution opposing the closure of Guantanamo Bay.
The Pueblo Chieftain’s Peter Strescino reports on the advancement of HB 1011, Sen. Leroy Garcia’s economic development bill
The Denver Business Journal’s Ed Sealover reports on Building a Better Colorado’s final three ballot filings, proposals by Dan Ritchie and Al Yates allowing the state to keep revenue that comes in over TABOR limits, two through 2026 and one permanently
Happy Birthday to Kevin Neimond, budget analyst for the Joint Budget Committee
CU Denver professor of political science Dr. Kathryn Cheever memorial service — Thurs., Mar. 10, Lawrence Street Center 2nd floor Terrace Room, 5:30 – 7:30 pm
Arapahoe County Democratic Party Convention — Sat. Mar. 12, Aurora Central High School, Check-in at 7:00 am
Community discussion and town hall meeting about the proposed land swap with the Broadmoor — Mon., Mar. 14, Broadmoor Community Church, 315 Lake Ave, Colorado Springs, 6:00 pm – 8:00 pm
Facts on refugees and immigrants event — Mon., Mar. 14, Colorado Capitol, Old Supreme Court, 11:45 pm — 1:30 pm
Colorado Hotel and Lodging Association 7th Annual “Delightful Dishes and Dreamy Getaways” — Tues., Mar. 15, Denver Marriott City Center, 6:00 am — 9:00 pm
Agriculture Day at the Capitol — Set for Tuesdays, March 16 — get ready for awesome food and great folks to descend upon the Capitol.
Colorado Young Democrats 2016 Legislative Showdown — Wed., Mar. 16, The 1up, 717 E Colfax Ave, Denver, 5:30 pm – 7:30 pm. Please join Sen. Ulibarri, Rep. Garnett, Rep. Melton, Rep. Moreno, and other legislators for one of our signature annual events.
NFIB Colorado Small Business Day at the Capitol — Thurs., Mar. 17, Luncheon Speaker: Phil Kalin, Pinnacol Assurance, Keynote Speaker: Jake Jabs, Founder American Furniture. Tickets are $20.00 and include breakfast, Lunch and legislative program. Register and pay by calling 303-860-1778
Colorado Republican Business Coalition Monthly Luncheon — Guest Speaker Sen. Chris Holbert, Fri., Mar. 18, Brooklyn’s at the Pepsi Center, 901 Auraria Pkwy, Denver, 11:30 am – 1:00 pm
17th Annual Icon Awards Gala — Fri., Mar. 18, Grand Hyatt Denver Downtown, 6:00 pm, Ticket includes appetizers, seated dinner, open bar, fabulous entertainment and dancing! Voted year after year as the best party in Denver! Tickets available at: http://bit.ly/1PN5Jj3
Rosting Mike Rosen — Sat. Mar. 19, Denver Marriott Tech Center, 4900 S Syracuse St, Denver, 5:30 pm – 11:00 pm, www.taps.org/classic
CD-1 Meet and Greet for candidates for Delegates to the 2016 Republican National Convention — Tues., Mar. 22. This is your opportunity to meet with candidates who are running to become delegates to the 2016 Republican National Convention. The people CD-1 chooses will have a direct opportunity to vote for the GOP candidate for President. Come if you wish to run or come if you wish to know more about those who wish to be delegates. 290 E Speer Blvd, Denver, 5:30 – 8:30 pm
Fundraiser for Denver DA candidate Rep. Beth McCann at the Denver Athletic Club — Wed., Mar. 23. Join hosts Pres Askew, Mary Ricketson, Mary Frances Kelley, John Maslanik & Linda Kreem, Craig Joyce, Jorge Castillo, Jack Melito & Tess Ellis, Chuck Holum, Mark Fulford, Alice Barton, and Jesse Ogas to hear Beth McCann‘s vision for the Denver District Attorney’s office. Denver Athletic Club, 1325 Glenarm Pl, Denver, 5:30 pm — 7:00 pm
Larimer County Republican Breakfast Club — Jon Keyser, candidate for U.S. Senate will be there, Johnson’s Corner meeting room, 2842 SE Frontage Rd., Johnstown, 7:00 am – 8:30 am
Morgan Carroll for Colorado Grassroots Happy Hour — Tues., Mar. 29, Apex Sports Lounge, 14567 E Alameda Ave, Aurora, 6:00 pm – 8:00 pm
2nd Annual Westminster Chamber Awards Gala — Fri., Apr. 29, Westminster Chamber of Commerce, Denver Marriott Westminster, 6:00 pm – 11:00 pm. Join us for our 2nd Annual Awards Gala on April 29th at the Denver Marriott Westminster. Awards will be given to area business in different categories. Food, Music and a Silent Auction will be part of this years event. There will be a 1 hour preview for VIP members and higher from 5-6pm and doors open to the public at 6pm. Purchase your ticket early and save $5 per ticket.
Want your event listed? Just let me know.
Colorado Capitol Watch — From our bill tracking partners:
– Bill Summary –
– Calendars –
House and Senate Calendars:
You’re up to date. Have a great Wednesday! Until tomorrow …
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