Michael Hancock may weather this latest storm, but managing the sex-related controversy, given the present climate surrounding the issue, is proving to be difficult. Key questions are: Will the controversy cost him votes in a third-term run? Could he lose because of it? Will he run? Will the controversy grow sufficiently to cause him to resign? Today, only the first question appears a yes.

Even discounting the scandal, his re-election faces challenges as Denver stands at one of those inflection points where a number of trends – some local, some national – portend danger to incumbent politicians. These include:

Third terms have a mixed track record for Denver mayors. Federico Peña and John Hickenlooper chose not to run and moved on to other jobs. Wellington Webb had an easy third re-election, but the May 5, 1999 vote was just two weeks after the Columbine shooting, a tragic moment in Colorado history. Bill McNichols ran for his fourth term in 1983 and lost to top vote-getters Federico Peña and Dale Tooley (Peña won).

Michael Hancock is a very able politician, but, as in 1983, is Denver moving toward change in 2019?